Predicted increases in sea levels will have significant effects on the natural coastal environments.  Coastal environments are unique physical and vegetative landscape and are important habitat for many year-round residents and migratory bird species.  Increasing sea levels mean greater volume of open water and deeper bays which could affect foraging habitat for wading birds, such as the Reddish Egret which forages in shallow bay waters.  The area of coastal salt marsh will be reduced, affecting habitat for species such as the Whooping Crane, rails, and Seaside Sparrow which are salt marsh specialists.  Even at the lowest expected sea level rise scenarios the lateral shifts in bayside marshes are expected to lose 1-2 km on the Texas coast including the southern portion of our study area (Montagna et al. 2007).  Salt marshes are not the only associations that will be affected as water level and salinities will increase along the low-lying uplands where inundation will cause habitat shifts in prairies and savannahs to a more estuarine environment.

The coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico in Texas are important areas for many bird species and populations.  Year round residents are joined by hundreds of species and millions of individuals of migratory and winter resident birds from fall to spring time. Aransas National Wildlife Refuge has recorded 405 species of birds. Many factors influence the number of species observed in this area, which includes the diversity of environments and plant communities found overs short distances. The variety of habitat types include beaches and flats, coastal salt marshes and open water, salty and upland grasslands, freshwater wetlands, and oak shrublands and woodlands. In addition, the central Texas coast is a major migratory corridor for birds travelling between North and South America so many North American species that breed farther north may be seen during the spring and fall migration in this area. A unique feature of the central Texas coast is that it is the winter home of the Whooping Crane, which is the only place in the world where it is found naturally during the winter months.

The overall goal of this project employs the conservation design approach to develop habitat type maps using available spatial environmental data for Whooping Crane, and other selected bird species of concern in Aransas, San Antonio, and Matagorda Bay systems.  These maps incorporate species-specific habitat requirements and define current habitat types available as well as evaluate how landscape changes likely to occur under various sea-level rise scenarios will affect conservation strategies.

Specific project objectives were to:

1. Create a Composite Habitat Type Dataset that identifies spatial location and extent of coastal habitat types, developed lands, and protected areas in GCPLCC pilot project area.
2. Estimate the amount and spatial configuration of habitat type needs for Whooping Cranes in the pilot project area
3. Develop projections of the amount and spatial configuration of appropriate habitat types and evaluate potential impacts on selected bird species numbers.
4. Construct maps that depict habitat type shifts in coastal prairie and marshes under various sea-level rise scenarios and define the shifts in habitat availability and extent for the Whooping Crane and other selected species.
5. Recommend ways to apply methods used to develop these projections to extend results to additional areas within the Gulf Coast Prairies and Marshes Ecoregion.

Final deliverable datasets are below